1.24.2012
Buy Home Via Listing Agent?
When buying a home, some folks are tempted to go straight to the Listing Agent, i.e. the Agent whose name is listed on the sign post, and forgo representation by their own Buyer’s Agent. They hope to get an edge on offer acceptance, or save money by negotiating commission.
While these good intentions often lead to a perception of value, they virtually never result in actual value. Moreover, the unintended consequences can be huge… and the result could offset any perceived discount by many multiples.
While general market conditions can arguably be called “distressed”, anyone who has spent even a bit of time searching homes recently knows that good deals and/or good market segments are pretty competitive. The better opportunities often come with multiple offers.
“Pushing offers through” is a function of many variables, including price, motivation, down payment, credit worthiness, payment capacity, organization, technology, Buyer attitude, Seller scenario, Agent experience, and Agent incentive… just to name a few.
The idea of “pushing offers through” itself is largely subject to marketing spin. The main thing to realize is this: if you were selling a home, wouldn’t your main concern be to identify and accept the highest and best offer received? … regardless of who brings the offer?
Since a home purchase is typically one of your largest investments, it is likely your senses will be heightened to perceive any sign of advantage, social proof, or sense of validation. While these same deep-seated human survival instincts have been instrumental in propagating our human species… they also unfortunately tend to make folks vulnerable to compliance professionals who lever emotions. This is where it helps to trust in self-reliance and see outside influences for what they are.
In California, Agent commission is negotiated between the Seller and their Listing Agent. If for example, the total commission is 6%, the Seller usually authorizes the Listing Agent to pay 3% (or half) to the Agent who brings the home Buyer.
It is pretty easy for Listing Agents to plant a seed about “knocking off some commission” since they will “earn both sides” by representing you in addition to the Seller to create a “win-win” deal. But think about it… the commission is already pre-negotiated, and since the Seller pays for all of it… where in the process do you actually even see how much commission gets paid? The fact is you don’t. The total commission and subsequent breakdown do not get disclosed to the Buyer.
The Listing Agent usually has a good idea about what bottom line the Seller will likely accept. Ask yourself how hard it would be to inflate this number by an extra couple of thousand and then say they could take off the adjusted amount “just for you”. Since the commission is pre-negotiated, what incentive would the Agent have to give this money to you?
And if the Seller and their Listing Agent happened to agree in advance to reduce the commission payable by the Seller, then still… what incentive would the Seller have to pass this through to you? No Seller I know likes to give money away even in a good market.
Even in the extremely unlikely event whereby a Seller receives two remarkably similar offers simultaneously, I guaranty you one thing… the order of savings goes like this: first the Seller, then the Agent, then you.
And think about this. The type of property, which fetches competition, is priced low enough that only the highest and best offer wins anyway, and the Seller has ample opportunity to cherry pick everything from inflated offer prices, to all-cash quick-close deals. If a Seller is struggling to get top dollar, then they are unlikely to fetch multiple offers in the first place… and the odds of receiving multiple identical offers are staggering.
Either way, by law, and by every ethical standard we Agents are conditioned to uphold, every offer must be presented to the Seller in a timely fashion. Not doing so could result in license revocation.
At the end of the day, Listing Agents seek first to lock in a typical commission, before risking a sale, or client satisfaction by holding out for “both sides” of the commission.
Now, while the idea of pushing offers through is mostly myth, there are quite a few things we can do to strengthen our offer in its own right, aside from increasing offer price. This skill-set is more art than science, and you should seek a Buyer Advocate who can succinctly quantify their strategy in laymen’s terms.
There are many factors to consider when buying a home that far exceed the prospect of saving a few thousand bucks, and frankly too, whether or not we can beat the competition on securing the first listing we like enough to buy.
Meantime, out of all the variables that make up our home purchase, asking how to “push offers through” or how to “save a few bucks” are not the biggest of our concerns.
The aspect to really focus on is how many tens of thousands can be gained from buying the right property, with the right positioning for long term appreciation, and how to avoid the not so intuitive pitfalls that could bring tens of thousands in liability.
Bottom Line: using a Listing Agent to represent you when buying that same home is kind of like going to court with the same lawyer who represents your opponent. The Listing Agent gets paid by the Seller. Even with the best intentions, there is a conflict of interests. Meantime, since the cost of receiving your own independent advocacy is paid by the Seller, then you may as well enjoy it.
Further, since Buyer Agents are not limited to selling you just their own listing, they are better positioned than a Listing Agent to separate their advice from commission. And if an opportunity does present, to negotiate authentic value on your behalf, rest assured it will be the Buyer Agent, and not the Listing agent, who is better positioned to do so, since they are solely dedicated to fighting on your behalf, to further your interests at every turn.
1.04.2012
Hot Listing Alert: Duplex < $1m in Cardiff
As
you know, 2-4 units rarely pop up west of I5, and when they do, they are
usually priced above $1m.
This
457-459 Brighton Avenue DUPLEX listing just went live
today, and is located in the heart of our coveted Composer District,
with an asking price $825,000-$875,000.
Here
is the mapped location for easy reference:
View Larger Map
Hit
me back if you would like to schedule a viewing or be notified again if images
get added to the online MLS report.
Labels:
cardiff real estate,
seths picks
Location:
459 Brighton Ave, Cardiff, CA 92007, USA
12.01.2011
Market Outlook, December 2011
Between raising a young family and operating at capacity on purchase, listing, and refi transactions, it comes to mind I have not logged a market update in a while. Then again, not much has changed since I really had something important to say. The political and banking sound bites du jour have changed with the wind, but the basic kick-the-can-down-the-road strategy seems to have put us all in the same boat... whether we were dragged into it kicking and screaming… or have begged, borrowed, bribed, or stolen a seat aboard.
What is also becoming increasingly apparent if not
somewhat humbling, is that when asked for my take on the market, most folks are
really just seeking the parts of my outlook that validates what they were
thinking anyway.
But every now and again, I get challenged and inspired to
distill my outlook into conscious thought, and with a green light from a valued
client, Dennis, I am pleased to post for your review an exchange of this
nature. Following is a snapshot of the
part of my day shared in conversation with a sophisticated investor, who kicks
the tires of a vehicle he plans to use to get a job done:
[read bottom up]
From: Seth Chalnick
Sent: Thursday, December 01, 2011 5:17 PM
To: 'DEck43'
Subject: RE: reply from seth
Sent: Thursday, December 01, 2011 5:17 PM
To: 'DEck43'
Subject: RE: reply from seth
Thanks Dennis, for the
thoughtful validation. Me too (lunch)… and it seems I’ll need to stick
with water if I’m going to keep up with you :)
I look forward to helping
Keith find a killer location that blows the doors off similar but inferior
properties, when it comes to long-term appreciation, by focusing on the
factors, which may seem today like nuances or subtleties, but will compound
over the 20-year resale trajectory.
sc
From: 'DEck43'
Sent: Thursday, December 01, 2011 4:52 PM
To: seth@sethchalnick.com
Subject: Re: reply from seth
Sent: Thursday, December 01, 2011 4:52 PM
To: seth@sethchalnick.com
Subject: Re: reply from seth
Thanks
for the response.
It seems
likely we will see some band aids as the banks fight for time.
The
people I speak with in big and small banks are shitting bricks. I am not
sure the end game might be quicker than you think. We both know the inevitability
of mark to market. I am therefore as worried about commercial and retail
centers.
Regarding
the use of funds, this is less than 1% of funds I am personally
investing. As the father I am not typical. I am locking in the
ridiculously low rate I can make on a mortgage to my kids. I gift them
the payment plus the balance of the 26,000. Therefore price is important
but location and a 20 year horizon are my objectives.
I have a
similar investment with my daughter in Chicago: 750 to 1 mil keeps it even.
She has three kids on 529 funds Keith 1.
Post this
email exchange it will be good to work through Keith with a CC to me. I
will definitely enjoy having lunch with you one of these first days.
Thanks Dennis
In a
message dated 12/1/2011 4:22:06 P.M. Pacific Standard Time, seth@sethchalnick.com writes:
re: Appreciation/value…
historically speaking, homes located west of I5 location have commanded the
greatest premium, have been the last to suffer downturns, and the first to
rebound. This trend was amplified in the following areas (listed from
highest to lowest): Rancho Santa Fe, Del Mar, Solana Beach, Cardiff,
Encinitas, Carlsbad. Add a 10%-15% premium for homes with a view of the
Ocean or Lagoon or location within a block or two of the beach.
I look forward to helping
Keith and you identify this level of value on a micro level when you actively
begin searching with me.
re: Banking… foreclosures
will pick up the moment the influence of all of this intervention let’s up…
unless and until we inflate our way out our debt problems first… which will
take a decade or so. The fed and the government and the banks have
conspired to plug up a cracking dam for four years now, and I am frankly amazed
they have been able to kick the can down the road this far. You are quite right
about the supply and demand of liquidity. But the banks were basically
insolvent after the subprime fiasco… and then they scratched “mark-to-market”
accounting principles and boom- they were back in action.
I am convinced there will be
no end to the magical things the fed, banks, and government will do to kick the
can down the curb. I don't know if any other real estate professional
will admit this, and I don't even know if I should give many of them credit for
knowing this in the first place… but I have consistently gone on record in
public forums stating that real estate prices should continue to go down until
folks can afford the payments with rates that are normalized (i.e. without
intervention)… and until there is an answer to all the homes that make up the
shadow inventory… and until there is an answer for what will happen when all
the 5 yr I/o loans currently in existence re-set back to principal and
interest.
So should the system
self-destruct? From a fundamental standpoint, probably… yeah. But
it is impossible to make rational predictions while the market is being manipulated.
In other words, the hypothetical outcome of life without intervention is not
the question. The question we should be asking is this: what will
happen with continued intervention? Because this is our new normal.
I don’t know the answer to this question, but if I had to guess, I suppose the
ultimate result will look like one of two things: We will either have
rampant inflation and dilution of capital… in which case it will circle back
around to real estate valuations on steroids… and the 4% rates we see today
will seem like free money in a few years. Or it will all go to shit… in
which case I suppose I would rather own property than anything else because it
is a tangible asset that will at least retain inherent value even in the worst
case scenario.
I see the opportunity of
buying today as an opportunity to leverage cheap money. I don’t want to
talk myself out of a commission or anything, but if it were me, I'm not sure I
would put all cash down on a home in coastal North County today with all this
potential downward pricing pressure… unless it wasn't for purely investment
purposes… or unless I could afford to allocate long-term resources without
disrupting the balance of the rest of my portfolio. I see the opp to
leverage cash right now as buying $325k homes in inland Carlsbad, Oceanside,
and San Marcos. These homes are much closer to their empirical
bottom. ROI is pretty turnkey for renting them. The replacement
cost is not much less than the purchase cost. People could afford these
homes with 20% down. They are the types of homes that people will need to
move to if they get displaced from higher-end homes. But then you miss
the longer term appreciation… which I don’t see happening within the next 3-5
years. So therein lies the tradeoff.
From: 'DEck43'
Sent: Thursday, December 01, 2011 3:16 PM
To: seth@sethchalnick.com
Subject: Re: reply from seth
Sent: Thursday, December 01, 2011 3:16 PM
To: seth@sethchalnick.com
Subject: Re: reply from seth
You know
what historically causes properties to hold or build value in this area what
are those attributes?
To
simplify banking my question. It is simply a money supply and allocation
question. If bank balance sheets weaken and reserve requirements
increase will foreclosures pick up or lending criteria change. If so
anyone dealing with the banks should find borrowing or refinancing more
difficult. That should weaken the market.
We are
not trying to market time the exact bottom.
Thanks
Dennis
In a
message dated 12/1/2011 2:35:38 P.M. Pacific Standard Time, seth@sethchalnick.com writes:
Hi Dennis,
re: Downgrades… the
fundamentals should continue to drive prices lower, but with all the
intervention, who knows if this will happen and when? I resist the
temptation of timing markets, and simply focus on whether or not it is the
right time to buy/sell for each client’s unique scenario. We may,
in fact, be far from an empirical bottom, but then again it could be the best
time ever to leverage other people’s money if you buy right. Or it could
be a bad time to buy from a pure cost basis perspective. The downgrades
have little impact in my book, because the ratings firms lost credibility when
they failed to see what a lowly agent like me saw five years ago. True,
lots of folks care what the media says, but the media is constantly offsetting
itself with conflicting reports, such that only hindsight will be the judge.
re: Your question about
including the “used to be price”… sorry if my response last time you asked was
not clear. For easy reference, here is a more direct answer:
The alerts do not come from
“my” system… they come directly from the MLS. It would be helpful if the
MLS system automatically displayed the price reduction amount within the email
alerts, but they do not. However, if you click the link provided in the
alert to view more info… then find that property in the list… and then click
for details… you will find a field called “Orig.Price”. This shows where
the list price started. It does not break down the increments of multiple
reductions, but it does at least show how much they dropped the price
overall.
To get the actual history
and increments of multiple price drops, you can visit “my” website here and then enter the property
address in the ‘keyword’ search box… then on the profile page that displays
next… locate the “price changes” link, where I intentionally had my guys code
this from scratch to fill in the gap of what I would agree is an MLS
shortcoming.
Or you can simply shoot me
the MLS number of listings you like and I will give you the history.
As far as my “favorites” go,
I take a hands on approach to providing uncensored opinion about each home I
visit in person with each valued client. I avoid sharing subjective views
beforehand, because anyway I slice it… it comes across as “selling”
something. I have a large book of business and the criteria important to
each respective client varies greatly. Rather than dissipate focus
attempting to be everything to everyone, I mindfully help folks when they are
most receptive. When Keith and I start physically looking at homes, he
and you will very quickly see how I help laser onto what you like and avoid
what you don’t. That said, if you share your short-list of potential
candidates, it will be a pleasure to review each one and reply back with the
pro’s, con’s, and ranking of each one.
I do not specialize in
managing rentals, but the broker of my firm does. He has successfully
managed a large stable of properties for over 20 years. I look forward to
making an introduction as the need arises.
I look forward to helping
Keith find a great home.
sc
From: 'DEck43'
Sent: Thursday, December 01, 2011 8:43 AM
To: seth@sethchalnick.com; ‘keitheck2’
Subject: Re: "encinitas" listings from seth for Dennis found on Thursday, December 01, 2011 3:04 AM
Sent: Thursday, December 01, 2011 8:43 AM
To: seth@sethchalnick.com; ‘keitheck2’
Subject: Re: "encinitas" listings from seth for Dennis found on Thursday, December 01, 2011 3:04 AM
How will
the bank downgrade play in to this?
From here
could you include the used to be price when we get a price reduction.
We would
be curious as a professional at this how do you rate the properties. You
could put that under the tab on your site called favorites. Value,
location, move in quality and rental would be a few of our criteria. We
have stated before a desire to be within walking of school and the beach.
I spoke
with Keith and he will flesh out his wish list a bit more.
We
discussed this again and are serious at near the bottom.
To
restate it would be cash with a quick close.
Finally,
does your firm manage rental situations for clients?
Thanks
Dennis
-----Original
Message-----
From: Seth Chalnick <seth@sethchalnick.com>
To: deck43, keitheck2
Sent: Thu, Dec 1, 2011 3:57 am
Subject: "encinitas" listings from Seth for Dennis found on Thursday, December 01, 2011 3:04 AM
From: Seth Chalnick <seth@sethchalnick.com>
To: deck43, keitheck2
Sent: Thu, Dec 1, 2011 3:57 am
Subject: "encinitas" listings from Seth for Dennis found on Thursday, December 01, 2011 3:04 AM
Hi
Dennis,
Here is a link to new listings and/or status changes that match our "Encrinites" search criteria.
Here is a link to new listings and/or status changes that match our "Encrinites" search criteria.
|
|
|
If you
wish to unsubscribe from this property update, unsubscribe here.
Search
Name: encinitas.
As always, please call anytime with any questions.
Speak soon,
sc
Seth Chalnick
Broker, Realtor, Buyer's Advocate, Registered Mortgage Advisor
Pacific Coast Homes
2093 San Eliot Avenue
Cardiff by the Sea, CA 92007
m: 619.251.8803
f: 858.630.4086
www.sethchalnick.com
9.09.2011
9-11 Memorial Surfboard
Here is a excerpt from this inspiring post:
Jerry Anderson, owner of Headline Graphics... creates custom surfboard graphics on Photocloth, producing photo-realistic images. “I envisioned it immediately,” said Anderson, “I thought of creating a flag that ran the length of the board with the faces of the 343 fallen firefighters set in the white stripes.”
According to Jeff Grygera, “I have built thousands of surfboards, but none of them ever affected me like this. Working on that board, I would stare at those faces for hours, realizing these guys would never return to their families again. As a family man, that was really emotional for me.”
Jerry Anderson, owner of Headline Graphics... creates custom surfboard graphics on Photocloth, producing photo-realistic images. “I envisioned it immediately,” said Anderson, “I thought of creating a flag that ran the length of the board with the faces of the 343 fallen firefighters set in the white stripes.”
According to Jeff Grygera, “I have built thousands of surfboards, but none of them ever affected me like this. Working on that board, I would stare at those faces for hours, realizing these guys would never return to their families again. As a family man, that was really emotional for me.”
8.16.2011
Cardiff Kook Ripped from Lineup!
Click for News8 story.
This great shot by transworldSURF captures the scene of a prehistoric surf snatching. Our infamous Cardiff Kook has been upstaged yet again! Dude need some lessons or what?
This great shot by transworldSURF captures the scene of a prehistoric surf snatching. Our infamous Cardiff Kook has been upstaged yet again! Dude need some lessons or what?
Update 8/25/11... was just emailed this video:
Cardiff Kook Dinosaur Attack - Behind the Scenes from http://vimeo.com/apeel on Vimeo.
8.10.2011
10-Year Bond-Yield Hits Record Low Today
For better or worse the yield today on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bonds dipped below the all-time record low.
English translation: the leading benchmark, used by the lending world to price rates like mortgage interest (among other things) briefly broke the historic record low, and as I write this post, is only trading a hair's breath higher.
For better... because it will keep pressure off those making payments on existing adjustable rate mortgages, especially those who are underwater. And it means home cost-per-month for new Buyers will likely get a bit more affordable, thereby buoying the housing market, which in turn, lends a ray of hope to underwater homeowners looking to break even.
Gas prices and credit card rates could also come down a bit.
For worse... because it means key economic players are signaling that the "economic recovery" is moving slower than expected. Followers of this blog may wonder how it is possible that key economic players can be surprised, when modest real estate professionals saw this writing on the wall as early as December 2008.
Also for worse... because this situation, while potentially long-lasting, is completely unsustainable and only presses snooze on the eventual day of reckoning. The day may come all at once, or it may come over a decade, but make no mistake, until asset prices are allowed to de-leverage the unfounded run up we had, well... what comes up, must come down.
To make this inevitable reckoning more palatable, okay less horrendous, the Federal Reserve, politicians, institutional traders, big banks, and at this point, pretty much everyone on Main Street too... have all, one way or other, gotten with the program of kicking the can down the curb to avoid the pain.
The idea is to dilute our economic problems over time, tax payers, and as many countries as possible, so that we inflate our way out of an unprecedented mess.
That's okay, but it would be short-sighted at best, and downright irresponsible at worst, not to make the realization here that even well-intended solutions to crisis often lead to unintended consequences. This is all pretty much a big experiment at this point, so buckle up folks, as we travel hereafter to parts unknown.
Bottom line: this is sort of short-term good news... and really bad news for the long-term hope that we are not in fact living out a "new normal".
8.09.2011
341 Chestnut Avenue
3bd/3ba/2car townhome two blocks from classic Carlsbad Beach.
Check out this new listing... a beautiful turnkey end-unit 3b/3b/2car townhome with open floor plan, flooded with natural light, and loaded with pride-of-ownership upgrades. One of only six charming well-run condo units, perfectly located away from congestion and only two blocks from classic Carlsbad Beach. Great opportunity to live or vacay at the beach and walk to shops and restaurants in Carlsbad Village. Asking price aggressively listed $5,000 below last sale in complex, which was comparable in quality and size.
Brokers, Barbers, and Not-So-Free Lovin’
When it comes to Housing, people often mistake bottom calls like they pick a wrong partner. Somebody out there will complete me, if only I can find them. Well love ain’t a noun… it’s a verb. And so is picking a bottom. In other words, buying right is not something you obtain. It is something you do.
We might be at a bottom, depending upon your perspective, and upon your ability to capitalize on advantages relative to your strengths. For example, for the right reasons, people might take advantage of opportunities to buy below replacement cost. Some are borrowing other people’s money at a significant discount to the future cost of borrowed money. Some are positioning themselves against inflation happening as I type this sentence. Some are making investments to lock in ROI higher than the 10yr bond yield, and locking in an arguably safer investment.
But these folks are still the minority, and for good reason. Because, unless you are sure you are buying “right”, and that you have what it takes to DO what is needed to ensure this buying decision stays sound, and can DO so for roughly 10 years, then well… you are about to meet your future ex.
As it relates to housing bottom calls, the whole “revert-to-mean” crowd, I think, should really shift their attention away from price as an indicator to more of a result. Look more toward rates, than prices, because this, more than any other variable has been artificially suppressed. To be sure, lots of other factors have been manipulated, but rates are the only variable that also serves as a latent ceiling for growth, at least until we finish deleveraging anyway. (Oil too maybe, but this is a housing article).
As for prices, they will keep going down until either rates force them to back in line with market forces unfettered by intervention... or until the tide of inflation completely offsets the inevitable correction. Housing is affordable right now relative to monthly payments… but not necessarily if you factor (un)employment outlook, or diminished income from a strained economy.
Regardless of the continuous stream of nearly three month-old statistics being published incessantly, the previous two quarters have been stellar as far as transactional volume is concerned, in San Diego anyway, and this current quarter seems to be outperforming the last two. We are seeing more volume in this single quarter than we did in all of 2008.
However, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The economy still absolutely sucks. Productivity within most small businesses seems off about 30%.
My thesis: people who are strapped for cash see the barber less frequently… but eventually need to get their hair cut. It is the same thing for housing. Rates have been relatively static for long enough now, that life changes are forcing folks to get on with things. So volume picks up. Rosy stats get published (albeit three months after the fact).
Meantime, if rates succumb to international pressure, and lurch one point within a single month, for example, as they did in January before quickly dropping when events in Libya took front and center… and your standard-issue $500k SoCal home drops another 9%.
There is a constant refrain heard from the whole bottom is now… no now... crowd, which goes like this: “Barring another catastrophic economic event it seems home prices will be looking around in this area trying to find a bottom”. I suppose it seems logical that only just so much pain can be inflicted by any given sector at a time. But it is critical to remember how the last catastrophic economic event was triggered. It was a housing free-fall that started this mess. It was not a reaction to it, but the cause. And it was not allowed to play out to its natural conclusion.
By all accounts, the pent up energy stored within the still highly dysfunctional ‘Prime’ mortgage market, is three times the magnitude of the mere ‘Subprime’ blip we saw last go ‘round. This was as easy to see three years ago as it is today. And it boggles the mind how super smart folks just don’t want to acknowledge we have to keep earning what we enjoy, like we need to work at our relationships, like we need to paddle out to catch more waves, like we need to resist immediate gratification to be healthy, like we need to save more than we spend, like we can’t just have an unearned run up of 25% year over year over year over year over year without consequences.
When rates revert to their long-term mean, and when buyers can afford the payments, after putting 20% down, on a suitable residence, that costs only a reasonable amount more than it does to rent a similar replacement, and that costs only a reasonable amount less than it does to build a similar replacement… then we will approach a bottom. This capacity varies by person, by market, and by the amount of work folks are willing to put into it.
And until you are ready to rip your own bottom from the fabric of the universe, you better love the one you’re with.
We might be at a bottom, depending upon your perspective, and upon your ability to capitalize on advantages relative to your strengths. For example, for the right reasons, people might take advantage of opportunities to buy below replacement cost. Some are borrowing other people’s money at a significant discount to the future cost of borrowed money. Some are positioning themselves against inflation happening as I type this sentence. Some are making investments to lock in ROI higher than the 10yr bond yield, and locking in an arguably safer investment.
But these folks are still the minority, and for good reason. Because, unless you are sure you are buying “right”, and that you have what it takes to DO what is needed to ensure this buying decision stays sound, and can DO so for roughly 10 years, then well… you are about to meet your future ex.
As it relates to housing bottom calls, the whole “revert-to-mean” crowd, I think, should really shift their attention away from price as an indicator to more of a result. Look more toward rates, than prices, because this, more than any other variable has been artificially suppressed. To be sure, lots of other factors have been manipulated, but rates are the only variable that also serves as a latent ceiling for growth, at least until we finish deleveraging anyway. (Oil too maybe, but this is a housing article).
As for prices, they will keep going down until either rates force them to back in line with market forces unfettered by intervention... or until the tide of inflation completely offsets the inevitable correction. Housing is affordable right now relative to monthly payments… but not necessarily if you factor (un)employment outlook, or diminished income from a strained economy.
Regardless of the continuous stream of nearly three month-old statistics being published incessantly, the previous two quarters have been stellar as far as transactional volume is concerned, in San Diego anyway, and this current quarter seems to be outperforming the last two. We are seeing more volume in this single quarter than we did in all of 2008.
However, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The economy still absolutely sucks. Productivity within most small businesses seems off about 30%.
My thesis: people who are strapped for cash see the barber less frequently… but eventually need to get their hair cut. It is the same thing for housing. Rates have been relatively static for long enough now, that life changes are forcing folks to get on with things. So volume picks up. Rosy stats get published (albeit three months after the fact).
Meantime, if rates succumb to international pressure, and lurch one point within a single month, for example, as they did in January before quickly dropping when events in Libya took front and center… and your standard-issue $500k SoCal home drops another 9%.
There is a constant refrain heard from the whole bottom is now… no now... crowd, which goes like this: “Barring another catastrophic economic event it seems home prices will be looking around in this area trying to find a bottom”. I suppose it seems logical that only just so much pain can be inflicted by any given sector at a time. But it is critical to remember how the last catastrophic economic event was triggered. It was a housing free-fall that started this mess. It was not a reaction to it, but the cause. And it was not allowed to play out to its natural conclusion.
By all accounts, the pent up energy stored within the still highly dysfunctional ‘Prime’ mortgage market, is three times the magnitude of the mere ‘Subprime’ blip we saw last go ‘round. This was as easy to see three years ago as it is today. And it boggles the mind how super smart folks just don’t want to acknowledge we have to keep earning what we enjoy, like we need to work at our relationships, like we need to paddle out to catch more waves, like we need to resist immediate gratification to be healthy, like we need to save more than we spend, like we can’t just have an unearned run up of 25% year over year over year over year over year without consequences.
When rates revert to their long-term mean, and when buyers can afford the payments, after putting 20% down, on a suitable residence, that costs only a reasonable amount more than it does to rent a similar replacement, and that costs only a reasonable amount less than it does to build a similar replacement… then we will approach a bottom. This capacity varies by person, by market, and by the amount of work folks are willing to put into it.
And until you are ready to rip your own bottom from the fabric of the universe, you better love the one you’re with.
7.29.2011
1124 Eureka Street, #40
1bd upgraded townhome, blocks from USD, West Mission Valley.
Check out this new listing... a thoughtfully designed, pool-view 1 bedroom condo, loaded with upgrades and flooded with natural lighting. Excellent ROI for investment purposes and ideal for USD students who enjoy campus within walking distance. NOT a distressed scenario but Owner needs to move, so will look for fair-market value, despite having invested $140k between original purchase price and fully documented, upscale improvements that reflect pride of ownership. Ask to see before/after photos. Great location, close to some of the region's best restaurants, Mission Bay, beaches, Fashion Valley Mall, Sea World, Old Town, Riverwalk Golf Course, & trolley.
'Investing in Real Estate' by 'Just Landlords'

I was approached by a representative of "Just Landlords", a property management company, with a request to make occasional guest contributions to this blog. They offer good content, which I believe some readers may enjoy as a compliment to my own. So without further ado...
Investing in the property market? Fancy yourself as a landlord? Well now may prove to be one of the best times to build a portfolio of properties with the sole intention of renting them out to prospective tenants.
The price of real estate is in decline at the moment and with increasing numbers of people struggling to get onto the property market in this current economic downturn, it could prove to be a great time to rent property out, as more and more people turn to rented accommodation as a short term fix until they can save enough money to then invest in some real estate of their own, provided they can secure a mortgage of course!
Landlords across the country will be rubbing their hands together with the amount of prospective tenants increasing. The most popular areas to live, such as the big city centres for working people, are likely to see increased rates for rent as a means by which landlords will take advantage of the increase in demand. However, by no stretch of the imagination is it an easy and care free life for landlords.
Landlords are commonly faced with issues such as tenants being unable to pay rent, or, just outright refusing to pay! This can be a tedious tribulation for landlords as they will then have to chase rent payments. Other difficulties landlords can be faced with are property damages and even theft. These are circumstances that are simply unpredictable. However, there is something that can be done in order to guard against such unfortunate situations. With Landlord Insurance you will be covered against such difficulties and you will be able to rest assured that the property is protected.
It will also be a good idea to maintain a great working relationship with your tenants. A happy household is always easier, and of course more pleasant, to deal with. It will probably be a good idea to run a credit check before you agree to any prospective tenants. This will be the best way to avoid any headaches of having to chase rent in the hypothetical event of them being unable to pay up.
Being a landlord is certainly not stress free, however it can be a great pleasure, and once the rewards begin to amount in the form of dollar bills then the real enjoyment will come! Investing in real estate in order to then rent it out is certainly something that has become more and more popular, and this is unlikely to change in the future.
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4.26.2011
414 Cerro Street

4bd/2ba family style in Encinitas Estates, Village Park, Encinitas.
A few words from the client...
My wife and I have been looking to buy a single family home in Encinitas for the past two years. As first time home buyers, we were very cautious and skeptical about realtors, but Seth Chalnick at Pacific Coast Homes, exuded professionalism, knowledge of the area, and most importantly HONESTY. He worked with us tirelessly, for over a year, to help us find the perfect house within our means, and now that we are moved in, we both know that this could not have happened with any other realtor.
Seth truly looked out for our best interests, and in looking at many places, would be the first to point out things that he thought we might find issues with. He was not in it for the quick buck, but rather for ensuring that we found the exact house we were looking for....which we did!!
In addition to helping us find our house, Seth also handled the mortgage side for us. Our friends and family warned us to shop around for additional rates, which we did. In the end, Seth BEAT all the other quotes that we got, and we can't tell you how much time and hassle he saved us by providing both aspects of this transaction.
We would HIGHLY recommend Seth to anyone in the market for a house!
-George & Jamie R.
3.24.2011
3539 Elliott Street

5bd/4ba 1933 built Loma Portal classic with city view in Point Loma.
A few words from the client...
We really appreciate all your help and support throughout this adventure. This could not have been possible without you! We are definitely going to have you manage the property for us, and look forward to continuing to work with you over the coming years.
-Diane & Edward H.
3.16.2011
My Take on "How to Stop the End of America"

This piece, by Porter Stansberry, producer of S&A Digest, makes alarming observations about our country's current financial outlook, which rings truer than anything else I have read this year.
Basic math shows how our country's economic path is unsustainable. Unfortunately, it seems our collective reality might best be described by tweaking this famous quote by AnaĂŻs Nin: “…the risk to remain tight in a bud (is less) painful than the risk it (takes) to blossom”.
As indicated by Mr. Stansberry, the issues highlighted are not political in nature, they are economic. I agree, but to effect change, we would need to either go through, or above, the existing political machine, which currently appears to be derailed by incentives counter to any meaningful recovery. It is my fear that the political machine has now formed a critical mass in defining its biggest incentives yet... which are to defend its own existence even at the expense of delivering the very value it was created to deliver... and to leverage every crisis as an opportunity to extend its own influence.
For the sake of our well-being and for that of future generations, let's hope our collective attention begins to rally behind solutions to the issues, which Mr. Stansberry and others have been warning about with increasing alarm.
3.12.2011
Market Outlook 3.12.11

Here is my response to a great question from an investor who belongs to a discussion group a mentor makes available to me:
Investor
Wouldn't rising interest only further damage housing market....and drive demand for rentals...in short run? Two ways to get in...purchase apt building or apt reits...thoughts?
Response
But for the Mid East situation, rates have already been on a tear. They were up 1% in ONE month last month before settling back down. A buyer, with 30yr fixed rate financing and 20% down, who wants to keep their budget fixed when looking for a $500k home, can only afford a $445k home when the rates go from the low 4's to the low 5's. That's 11%. And that's just the purchase market.
As I've been warning for 2 years now, the refi market will adjust severely as fully indexed rates on 3, 5, and 7yr i/o's (interest-only) loans reset, and as rates get back to the teaser rate... by the tune of 40% payment shock. This is a number that will make current valuations unsustainable, especially in light of the fact that over 90% of US consumers today make less in real terms than they did five years ago, when they locked into their short-term financing. We are only about 30% of the way through the re-sets, and about 50% of these have the option to press snooze for another 5 years when converting to their i/o option. This means that each year, for the next 7 or so years, roughly 10% (half of the loans resetting annully) of 90% of everybody who refi'd or bought a home in the last 5 or so years (90% opted for short term rate locks on i/o loans), will likely be added to this "payment shocked" category. And this is if rates stop at 5.25%... and why would they?
So yes, I am confident it will not only damage the purchase market and valuations, but also cause many existing homeowners to face the foreclosure spiral. I do like apartment rentals for this reason but they are hard to finance and even harder to find. So the REIT option may be the way to go indeed. The only thing to look out for is that their rental income may not go up from here even as demand goes up. They will have fewer vacancies maybe, but I was surprised to note how rental prices have been coming down along with home prices, rather than surge. It seems that renters have less income to work with and will keep seeking lower end homes until they can find one they can afford. Unlike many of today's homeowners, they actually have to move out if they can't pay up. And I am also in agreement with David's call to finding those REITs that limit their focus to this vertical.
Lastly, I also like low end single family residences (not tied to potentially fragile HOA's), which will be the future home of many soon to be displaced homeowners. I even like the low end of mid-priced homes, even despite this forecast of lower valuations over the next 2-5 years... because today's 5% rates are soon going to feel like tomorrow's free money, and eventually our inflation and diluted currency will make these values roar back to life.
sc
3.07.2011
iPhone 5 Wishlist

Okay, so this is a bit off topic for real estate, but hey... it could keep your agent more productive anyway :)
Here are 10 things I wish the iPhone 5 will include:
- Laser pico projector built inside.
- MagSafe charger that fits all apple devices and also syncs info via wall outlet.
- Print to PDF from iPhone (to dropbox)
- App that enables iphone to access printers connected with drivers via cloud via router, so that it works even when pc or mac is turned off.
- App that enables iphone to access home tv connected via router, so that it works even when pc or mac is turned off, which is better than a tuner because it makes use of existing technology and allows users to access content they are already paying for.
- Better media player to stream music via dropbox.
- Much better native voice recognition across multiple applications.
- RFID type credit card feature that you can turn on and off to prevent thieves from capturing info by cyber pickpocketing.
- Share your screen via FaceTime.
Who knows what ridiculous advancements this next iteration will bring, but I'm pretty sure I won't be able to resist buying into whatever they come up with next.
3.04.2011
1010 Arcadia Rd

Check out the virtual tour of this new listing... warm and charming home is engineered for indoor-outdoor living and entertaining, with maximum exposure to panoramic ocean views from virtually every room on both floors. Come see this thoughtfully designed floor plan loaded with natural lighting and too many features to list, including: skylights, open-beam vaulted ceilings, dual-pane picture windows, French doors, multiple decks, two fireplaces, gourmet kitchen, custom cabinetry, privately fenced yard, and much more.
2.21.2011
Housing + More Reforms = Even Higher Rates

Don't read this Los Angeles Times article if you're in a good mood. And if you do read it... then don't consider how higher rates will dampen the purchase market. And if you do consider it intuitively, then don't peek through the small slits in the fingers of your hand when reading this:
The going rate last month = $400k @ 4.125% = $1,938 p&i.
The going rate this month = $400k @ 5.125% = $2,178 p&i.
12% higher payment. In one month. And this is before they mess with Fannie/Freddie.
For perspective, a buyer who was planning to buy a $500k home, with 20% down, to lock in a $1,938 payment... now has to reduce their offer price to $445k, for the same home. That's $55k, or 11%!
And if you just couldn't help yourself from internalizing the information above, then whatever you do... absolutely, positively, do not read this prediction I made in late 2008.
9.17.2010
1736 Hill Top Lane
3bd/2ba family style in Seagate Village, Village Park, Encinitas.
A few words from the client...
"Dear Seth,
I am writing to thank you for all the heart and hard work you put into the successful sale of my house. You are "motivation" in human form. Your knowledge of today's real estate market, and of our current financial markets in general, is truly stellar. I have no doubt that it's because of your caring, hard work, and motivation that my house sold so fast and didn't linger on the market.
Again, thanks--and I don't need to tell you to keep up the good work--it goes without saying that that is what you will do.
Warmest regards,
-Patricia H, Concord, California (formerly Encinitas!)
_________________________________________
12/7/10 update: closed escrow at $575,000.
12/1/10 update: expected to close on 12/7.
10/27/10 update: now pending.
Check out the virtual tour of this new listing... a warm and inviting family-style, single-level, 3bd/2ba/2car home, with great floor plan, on well-located lot, within a highly desirable neighborhood. Natural light floods the home through large skylights, dual paned windows, sliders, vaulted ceilings, and lofty white walls. Park view from living room. Lush, park-like, professionally landscaped drought tolerant yards with large brick patio. Turnkey home one block from award-winning Flora Vista Elementary school. Low HOA and no Mello Roos. Great value!
7.25.2010
1184 Arcadia Road
4.30.2010
Cardiff by the Sea, CA 92007
Note: this is part of my Town-by-Town Description series.
classic view of cardiff driving up hwy 101
Overview
- Classic flip-flop culture meets beautiful upscale architecture.
- Ranges from country-like, multi-acre parcels approximately two miles inland... to thickly settled residences the closer you get to the coast.
- Spectacular homes sitting right alongside multi-unit rentals.
- The smallest of North County towns, but still has its own 92007 zip code.
- Cardiff is the only North County town that doesn’t have structures built on the west side of Hwy 101… since the ocean cuts east up to the road. But its as if the Man Upstairs tempered this feature by tilting the whole setup along a fairly dramatic hill, offering more amazing sunset views per home than its North County neighbors.
- Passport to North County- living here creates a sense of belonging to each of the neighboring towns too... its about 17 miles from the tip of Carlsbad to the bottom of Del Mar, and most of your frequented destinations will be within two miles of the coast.
- Visitor Factor- the campground keeps a steady stream of visitors flowing, but also lends a special sense of ownership to the locals. If you are thinking about avoiding out-of-towners by choosing a different town instead… fagedabouddit… they get pressure too.
- Cardiff... funky, real, cool.
Reports
- Get town statistics at Onboard Informatics or Citi-Data.
- Get school reports at Onboard Informatics or Yahoo.
- See homes for sale here.
- Request a personalized property search page here.
Features & Attractions
- Composer District- named by its developer after the musical composers he loved, these coveted streets offer a sort of throwback to olde San Diego. The streets are winding... the views are spectacular... the architectural design is straight from a magazine. Here is a good article about is origins. Located north of Birmingham, west of I5.
sample composer district street - Walking District- highly sought after homes, plotted in a grid that surrounds Town Center. Walking distance to beach, shops, restaurants, and parks. Located south of Birmingham, west of I5.
street view overlooking the walking district - Crest Drive- a street that runs parallel with the coast, east of I5, along the highest point on the hill, overlooking the Pacific Ocean to the west, and mountain ranges to the east.
ocean view from crest drive
inland view from crest drive
random street between i5 and crest drive - Cardiff Campground is one of the best places in America to pitch a tent. Its like being in Big Sur, but warmer, without the cool redwood trees, and closer to gourmet food. The oceanfront bluff offers breathtaking views... the cost is nominal... the experience is memorable. I actually camped here 10 years ago for four nights when I first landed in Cardiff (from back east). I used it as home base until I found a killer rental that allowed dogs. Speaking of dogs, they are welcome at the Campgrounds (on leash). The surf ranges from ok to epic.
lifeguard tower by "campgrounds" - Cardiff Town Centre- located in the heart of Cardiff by the Sea, my Pacific Coast Homes office is based here, right next to Seaside Market. We get foot-traffic of 17,000 people per week! ...of which I estimate 16,000 wear flip-flops. You will also find here the best pizza place and dry-cleaner in North County, along with a Starbucks, surf art gallery, and several shopping boutiques. A new sushi restaurant is also being built in the former location of Yogi’s (see below).
cardiff town centre - Seaside Market- the best gourmet food source in North County. Everything you (not so much need as) want at high (but not obnoxiously) high prices. The freshest meat and fish around, albeit sold in cuts so huge, you can’t eat again for days. Hey, maybe that’s how people can afford to shop here! Great produce. Staples you need at convenience store prices. Good wine collection managed by a great guy. In fact all the people who work there are friendly... sort of like “In-and-Out” style only sans the funny hats.
inside town centre: seaside market and my pch office - Patagonia- a high-end surf store, out of which you’d love to buy many artful, enviro-friendly things if you didn’t have to also budget for food and diapers.
chlorine free merino wool lined wetsuit anyone? - Cardiff Lagoon- aka San Elijo Lagoon, contains 1,000 acres, 8 trail heads, 7.5 miles of trails & 700 species of plants and animals. Run by this conservatory.
cardiff lagoon
view from solana beach side
overlook - Glen Park- clean, safe, and beautiful ocean view park with picnic tables, and tennis and basketball courts.
glen park - Train tracks- used by North County Transit District's Coaster and Sprinter lines.
even our trains have killer views - More features and attractions:
classic hwy 101
driving down birmingham
ancient structure on school grounds likely involving juicy history i don't know about
can still park on dirt in some places
rare plot of land west of crest drive
standard issue surf van
Restaurants
- Trattoria Positano- Quiet, cozy, romantic... good ambiance.
date night - Las Olas- the best sit-down style Mexican restaurant in North County. Located on famous Hwy 101, on the strand that connects Cardiff with Solana Beach. Semi ocean views... total beach vibe... better than average food... great margaritas, bloody maries, and bottled beer. And chips and salsa good enough that you never seem to be as hungry as you thought when the burrito comes.
tacos meet surf - East Coast Pizza- the best pizza in Cardiff. I like the sausage, meatball, pepperoni slices best.

hits the spot - Pipes CafĂ©- not sure what all the hubbub’s about… but its super popular with the surf crowd. When I first moved here I was excited to not only surf, but do all things surf related… and this includes Pipes for sure. Only the eggs came out steamed, I got like one slice of bacon, the lines were long, and I don’t think I've been back since. Note: my opinion here does not reflect consensus.
steamed eggs, brah! - Chart House- you pay more for the ambiance and ocean view than the food. But the food is very good, and view is in fact, killer, so the next time you feel like valet parking your car to enjoy an artfully presented scoop of ahi…
- Cicciotti’s- formerly the Cardiff location of Vigilucci’s. While its just not the same as when it was Vigiliucci’s, and I honestly can’t put my finger on why… it serves up a diverse and yummy family style meal at “we’re not on a date” prices.
- VG's- when you're in the mood to add back calories burned during exercise, drop by VG's for the absolute, hands down, best chocolate-glazed donut you ever did scarf.
best donuts this side of anywhere
Nightlife
- Yogi’s Sports Bar Restaurant- has sort of a monopoly on Cardiff nightlife. I think it has something to do with it being hard to get a liquor license here. I haven’t been to the new location which is next to Las Olas on the 101 strand that connects Cardiff with Solana Beach, but I imagine it’s pretty much the same. (Yogi's used to be in Town Centre.)
your next old stomping grounds - The Office- one of those bars you visit when first coming to town and decide whether you’re going to make it a hobby. One of the funniest quotes I can remember hearing about, was said in this bar, by a guy who resembles Cliff Clavin straight out of Cheers, after being asked… “why do you even bother coming in here?” He replied, “because it feels so good when I leave”.
"honey, i was at the office" - The Shanty- even more of a commitment than The Office.
still here
- Cardiff Lodge- a place I recommend to my people… but my people tend to stay where they want to stay... and give me my opinion when they ask for it. $185-ish.
cardiff lodge - Holiday Inn Express- an inexpensive alternative… recently remodeled and nicer than you think. $135-ish.
Surf Breaks
- Pipes- north of the campground… a fun peaky break, south of Swami’s.
- Campgrounds- the beach in front of the campground that shows why California is better than wherever you come from.
- Cardiff Reef- south end of the campground, by the river mouth, where grommets and oldie-but-goodies pretend they don’t irritate one another. Mostly long-boardable but can get epically epic.
cardiff reef - George's- is the stretch of coast in front of the Lagoon, aka “Restaurant Row”… ranges from frustratingly fat tide mush to fast micro-barrels.
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